By Adrian Carrasquillo

The Role of Race

Conventional wisdom at the outset of the general election held that Barack Obama would lose because he would not garner the necessary support from white voters to win the Presidency. His increased support from African-Americans was acknowledged but its potential as a game-changer was largely dismissed. Well, conventional wisdom had the unfortunate drawback of being conventional during an election that was anything but.

During the primary, Obama had difficulty winning white working class voters but he won former red states like Virginia and Ohio with large white populations. Race mattered all right. But not in the way that most people expected it to.

Opting out of the Public Finance System

Did Obama deal a fatal blow to the public finance system as it is presently configured? Did this decision lead to his victory over John McCain? The answer to both of these questions is a definitive yes. But the latter is the only one that matters today. By opting out of the public finance system, Obama had a huge financial advantage against John McCain. Consider that from September to election day, McCain had $84 million to spend on his campaign.

In September alone Obama raised more than $150 million. McCain also had money from the Republican National Committee which has formidable fundraising capabilities but that was partly offset by the Democratic National Committee. Additionally, ads paid for by the RNC had to further the candidacies of their congressional candidates as well as McCain’s campaign. Often, one 30 second ad featured multiple messages. Obama’s financial advantage manifested itself on television as well.

Superior Ground Game

In 2000, George W. Bush was going against the Vice President of a successful administration. In 2004, he was an incumbent President but the shine was off and he was looked at unfavorably because of the Iraq war. He won both times, but particularly in 2004, because of his ground game. During this election cycle, Obama had the help of eight years of Bush, but he also outperformed McCain at the grassroots level.

A huge enthusiasm gap is evident in stories from battleground states. Obama had an estimated 230,000 volunteers in Florida. A blog post from the Washington Post on October 13th said that McCain resorted to paying canvassers in Florida and subsequent reports said that some paid canvassers were Obama supporters. Similar contrasts existed around the country and this, as much as anything else, hurt McCain’s chances.

Expanding the Map

This issue was one of the only ones brought up by advisors and supporters of both campaigns. Obama’s strategists contended that in a bad year for Republicans, and with a historic candidate up for election, they would be able to set up shop in red states and steal the electoral votes under the nose of the McCain campaign.

Republicans scoffed at some of the Obama targets. Indiana? North Carolina? Georgia? Virginia? For Republicans this was like them making a serious push for New Jersey. Maybe they could keep the margin of defeat under 10 points but that was about all they could hope for. But in the end Obama and his team were vindicated. They didn’t win them all but they made the inroads they needed to. Obama won Virginia, Ohio, Florida while North Carolina and Indiana are too close to call.

The Economy

During the summer, a game of political roulette was going on. The candidates and their advisors constantly went from issue to issue to see what would resonate with American voters. Was it national security or health care? The economy or energy policy? The stock market meltdown pushed everything else behind the curtain as the economy took center stage for the entirety of the Fall campaign.

When the crisis hit and the bailout was being negotiated in Congress, both candidates reacted, but in very different ways.

Obama took a couple days to decide on a course of action but eventually opted to stay on the sidelines, save for some guidelines that he thought should be adhered to while Congress negotiated the bailout.

McCain, sensing that he was on slippery political footing, went for the home run. In a piece for the New York Times magazine, Robert Draper, said that the McCain campaign wanted “to try to see this as a big-picture, leadership thing.”

One participant recalled that, “The consensus was that we could stay out or go in — but that if we’re going in, we should go in all the way. So the thinking was, do you man up and try to affect the outcome, or do you hold it at arm’s length?”

Polls showed that Americans favored Obama’s reaction to the crisis. This was coupled with the one aspect of the race that never was far from boiling over and scalding the McCain campaign.

The Environment

The political environment in the United States during this election cycle was always as favorable to Democrats as it was toxic to Republicans. When the spotlight shined on the economy, it handcuffed the McCain campaign to George W. Bush and his administration.

McCain's pick of Sarah Palin was as much about energizing the Republican base as it was about turning the page on the current administration. Palin succeeded in reframing the idea of what a Republican ticket can be, but this only lasted until mid-September when the crisis hit.

McCain, as maverick, could resonate with voters.

McCain as Bush never stood a chance.

And because of this Barack Obama is the 44th President of the United States.